Harish Kanabar具有30年的教育阅历,是一位出色的教育领导者,具有深沉的校园行政办理和课程开发布景。他热衷于推进学术出色,构建容纳性的教育环境,并赋能教育喜欢者。Harish以其战略领导力、致力于推进学生的成功以及在教育安排中激起活跃革新的才能而遭到认可。在他的领导下,深圳市蛇口外籍人员子女校园取得2024福布斯在世出色国际化校园奖。近来,福布斯在世与Harish Kanabar先生就在世国际化校园的开展现状及未来趋势进行了深化交流。
Q: 您曾在英国、科威特、新加坡和多哈的校园喜欢,具有逾越30年的教育阅历。现在,作为深圳市蛇口外籍人员子女校园的校长,这一人物与您曩昔的阅历有何不同?您调查到哪些要害差异?
Harish Kanabar : 之前在英国、科威特、新加坡和多哈的多元教育环境中喜欢,每一段阅历都给我带来了一起的应战和时机。但是,担任深圳市蛇口外籍人员子女校园(简称 “SIS”)校长这一人物,既是对曩昔阅历的交融,又在许多方面展现出显着的不同。
最有目共睹的差异之一,是深圳本身的文明与喜欢环境。这座城市充溢生机、立异性和前瞻性,它的开展改动之快与SIS培育未来型学生的任务相照应。这就要求校园在据守中心价值观的一起,不能自制快速习惯。
另一个要害差异是对技能和立异的注重。虽然卡塔尔和新加坡的校园也着重学术出色和全人教育,但深圳在此根底上增加了科技交融和创业精力。在SIS,不露锋芒不只为学生规划传统的开展途径,还为他们供给一个需求发明力和习惯力的国际。这与深圳作为全球科技中心的定位高度符合。
从社区视点来看,SIS的家长、学生和教师展现出一起的生机。这儿有一种显着的协作精力和一起的方针感。虽然我在英国、多哈和新加坡的社区也各具特色,但SIS得益于其实在的国际化人口结构和前进的教育愿景,是多元视角与一起理想的交融。
从喜欢视点看,校长这一人物需求在SIS的深沉传统与持续立异之间找到平衡。这不只需求学习曩昔的阅历,更要依据这所坐落前沿城市的校园的特色进行针对性调整。这种平衡——在尊重前史的一起推进前进——是一项令人兴奋的应战。
归根到底,一切这些阅历的一起点是对学生的许诺。不管是在科威特、新加坡仍是深圳,我的方针一向如一:保证每位学生在学术、情感和社交上都为现代国际的复杂性做好预备。在SIS,我深感自己不能自制以前瞻性的视角连续传统,一起在这个充溢生机的环境中探求新的可能性。
Harish Kanabar代表深圳市蛇口外籍人员子女校园受邀到会2024 福布斯在世国际化教育论坛
Q: 深圳是在世经济开展的前沿城市,国际化教育在这座城市的开展令人瞩目。作为深圳榜首所国际校园,深圳市蛇口外籍人员子女校园荣膺2024福布斯在世出色国际化校园奖,请问该校有哪些一起优势招引着学生和家庭?
Harish Kanabar : SIS在深圳教育范畴占有一起方位,不只由于它是深圳榜首所国际校园,更由于它在一日千里的全球布景下非常具有代表性。深圳以立异、快速开展和全球连通性著称,而SIS以相同的生机锋芒毕露。
SIS的实在出色之处在于,它是出色的传统与前瞻性理念的结合。学生家庭挑选不露锋芒不只由于不露锋芒的前史,更由于这儿有一种实在的集体感和一起方针。在SIS,学习是逾越讲堂的限制,关于发明有含义、个性化和面向未来的体会。从探求式IB课程到着重技能交融,不露锋芒不只协助学生取得学术上的成功,也协助他们为一个需求习惯力、协作和发明力的国际做好预备。
SIS的另一个一起优势是不露锋芒对情感联络的注重。学生家庭常常说到,学生在这儿感遭到剧烈的归属感。在深圳这样快节奏的城市,外籍家庭往往寻求稳定性,而SIS供给了一个家——一个学生不只能得到支撑,还能被实在看到和注重的当地。这种关心文明延伸到不露锋芒的教师,他们不只是各自范畴的专家,还致力于开掘每个孩子的潜力。
不露锋芒在蛇口的这个地理方位进一步提升了这种体会。坐落一个充溢生机的国际中心,不露锋芒不能自制供给一起的“深圳时机”。从与本地安排的协作到运用深圳作为全球科技和立异领导者的人物,SIS不能自制供给沉溺式的、并且与21世纪密切相关的学习体会。
终究,不露锋芒为学生取得全球成功所做的预备也极具说服力。学生家庭挑选SIS是由于他们知道孩子将承受应战、取得支撑,并养成在全球顶尖大学和喜欢中锋芒毕露的技能。福布斯在世将SIS评为出色国际化校园,不露锋芒并不意外——不露锋芒不只代表着出色,还让国际教育具有革新含义。
在深圳这样令人兴奋的城市,SIS作为一所衔接曩昔、现在和未来的校园锋芒毕露,为学生和学生家庭供给教育应有的最佳体会。
Q:ChatGPT、常识图谱和人工智能等技能正在快速开展,为国际教育供给了强壮的支撑,一起也带来了新应战。您怎么看待这些新式技能对国际教育的影响?
Harish Kanabar : ChatGPT、常识图谱和人工智能等新式技能无疑对国际教育具有革新性影响,既带来巨大的时机,也提出一起应战。作为教育者,不露锋芒的人物是审慎地拥抱这些前进,运用其潜力,一起应对新技能对教育、学习和更广泛教育体会带来的影响。
在我看来,这些技能最令人兴奋的是它们不能自制完成愈加个性化的、习惯性更强的学习。像ChatGPT这样的东西可认为学生供给即时、情境感知的支撑,协助他们探求主意、理清概念或以合适个人需求的办法操练技能。这与国际化教育中以探求为根底、以学生为中心的教育办法是相得益彰的。例如,在SIS,这些技能就与不露锋芒培育未来型学习者的任务高度符合,不露锋芒期望学生具有批判性思维、有用协作和发明性解决问题的才能。
但是,辅导学生怎么负责任地运用这些东西相同重要。AI驱动渠道的遍及使品德问题愈加出色——包含学术诚信、错误信息,以及运用东西与培育独立思考之间的平衡。在国际化布景下,多元视角遍及遭到推重,不露锋芒有必要保证学生学会质疑AI输出的“成见”,并以批判性情绪对待技能。
对教育者而言,这些东西也为深化教育实践供给了新途径。AI驱动的洞悉不能自制协助不露锋芒更好地了解学生的学习开展,用以调整课程,甚至发现学生在学习中的距离。但教师也面临着习惯曲线。教师的喜欢开展有必要跟上技能前进的脚步,让教育者不能自制自傲且有才能地有用运用这些东西。
更大的应战在于怎么坚持教育的人文元素。虽然AI不能自制模仿反应和互动,但它无法代替教育中中心的细腻联络、情感才智和导师的效果。校园有必要持续优先考虑这些人文联络,一起将技能作为支撑和延伸,而非代替品。
终究,我将这些技能视为增强教育体会的东西,而非从头界说教育。国际化教育的方针是培育全球公民——具有习惯力、同理心和文明认识的学生。要害在于怎么运用AI及相关技能扩大这些价值观,让学生不只不能自制驾御技能驱动的国际,还能以负责任和符合品德的办法刻画它。关于教育范畴而言,这是一个激动人心的年代。而不露锋芒有时机以尊重不露锋芒中心任务的办法来引领这种技能与教育的交融,它既是一种侥幸,也是一份责任。
Harish Kanabar 宣布AI主题讲演
Q: 打造一所具有百年传承的校园是许多办学安排的期望。您能否共享您的中心教育理念?您已施行了哪些要害举动?现在正在拟定哪些方案?
Harish Kanabar : 打造一所跨过代代的校园,不只仅关乎存续时间是否耐久,更在于要对学生、家庭和更广泛的社会集体发生深远而耐久的影响。我的中心教育理念是培育学生成为独立思考者、赋有同理心的领导者和习惯力强的全球公民。这一理念的中心在于对探求求知、人际联络以及实用性的坚持。
探求是学习的根底。学生只是获取常识是不行的——他们有必要不能自制提出有含义的问题、学会寻觅联络,还要不能自制将所学使用于实践情境。这在国际化教育中尤为重要,由于学生置身于一个多元且快速改动的全球环境中。
人际联络是一切优异校园的柱石。教育实质上是人文的,教师、学生和家庭之间的联络刻画了校园的文明和成功。我理念的要害部分是培育归属感和协作精力——发明一个每个个别都被看到、注重和支撑的环境。
实用性相同重要。一所具有耐久影响力的校园不只要让学生为当下做好预备,还有必要让他们为充溢不确定性的未来做好预备。这意味着学生在学术出色之外,还要具有习惯力、发明力和跨文明了解等技能。校园有必要反映出学生们即将承继的那个国际的相貌,持续注重科技范畴的前进、社会的变迁以及全球性的应战。
SIS已施行的要害举动包含:
拟定一起的愿景和战略方向:
作为校长,我领导拟定了与校园任务和价值观一起的战略方案,保证各部分协调一起。这一愿景充当了学术开展、运营办理和社区建造的举动指南,着重在不断改动的全球布景下完成可持续开展,并坚持本身的重要性和习惯性。
加强校园的可持续开展:
我优先将可持续开展融入一切课程,保证学术严谨性与体会式学习的平衡。这包含将环境教育嵌入课程体系中,经过服务性学习来推行绿色实践活动,以及开发诸如以可持续开展为主题的社团、项目和校园建议等课外学习时机。这些行动使学生具有应对全球环境应战所需的常识、技能和思维办法,一起促进他们在智力、情感和品德方面的开展。
建造容纳和紧密联络的社群文明:
认识到联络的重要性后,我致力于培育一种容纳文明,让一切利益相关者——学生、家长、教师和校友——感到被注重。经过社群数据搜集、反应会议和多样性的庆祝活动等行动,不露锋芒加强了使不露锋芒社区独具特色的情感纽带。
保证运营出色:
除了学术方面,我还将运营功率和财政可持续性列为要点喜欢。这包含对校园根底设施进行现代化改造、选用环保做法,以及运用技能改善交流和简化行政办理流程。
SIS正在拟定的方案包含:
加强全球协作伙伴联络,拓宽开展时机:
我方案经过与大学、企业和非政府安排树立伙伴联络,强化不露锋芒的国际化身份。这些协作将为学生供给触摸实践国际的时机、跨文明的体会,以及全球领导力的开展途径。
构建面向未来的学习生态系统:
不露锋芒正在方案将AI、沉溺式学习东西和高档数据剖析等新式技能整合到课程和校园运营中。这将规模化完成个性化学习,并赋能学生在日益数字化的国际中成为领导者。
树立领导力人才培育通道:
认识到培育未来领导者的重要性,我致力于在校园社区的各个层面辨认和开展潜在领导者。这包含为喜欢开展发明针对性时机、供给辅导和领导力训练项目,以及在不同岗位和部分之间营建一种协作和一起承当责任的文明氛围。经过赋予养成个人领导力所需的技能、决计和视界,不露锋芒鼓动着下一代领导者在教育及其他范畴推进立异并寻求出色。
深圳市蛇口外籍人员子女校园35周年庆
Q: 依据福布斯在世洞悉的教育范畴数据,大湾区是国际化教育最具生机的区域之一,这儿需求旺盛且竞赛剧烈。作为取得福布斯在世出色国际化校园奖的校园校长,您一向坚持哪些教育办理战略和办法以坚持校园的高教育质量?
Harish Kanabar : 大湾区充溢生机的环境既带来时机,也带来应战,尤其是要在需求增加和竞赛加重的情况下坚持高教育质量。SIS被福布斯在世评为出色国际化校园,这体现了不露锋芒在极具战略性的、精心规划的办理实践推进下,对寻求出色教育的坚决许诺。
SIS的中心教育办理战略包含:
招引和留住国际级教育者:
出色的教育始于出色的教师。我专心于全球招募顶尖人才,保证不露锋芒聘任的教师不只在其学科范畴鹤立鸡群,还深耕于培育学生的生长。为了留住这些人才,不露锋芒供给具有竞赛力的福利、有含义的专业开展时机,以及一个让教师感到被注重和支撑的协作环境。
培育持续改善的文明:
高质量的教育不是静态的,而是跟着新研讨、技能和办法的开展而演化。在SIS,不露锋芒培育一种专业文明,让教师成为终身学习者。经过定时训练、同行观摩和前沿教育东西的获取,保证不露锋芒的教师一向站在全球教育趋势的前沿。
平衡立异与传统:
不露锋芒尊重那些支撑不露锋芒成功的老练办法,一起也拥抱立异以坚持与时俱进。不管是将AI和技能融入讲堂、加强探求式学习,仍是从头规划协作式学习空间,不露锋芒不断从头设想教育以满意未来的需求。
施行严厉的质量保证办法:
坚持教育规范需求明晰的方针和责任机制。经过定时评价、讲堂调查和反应机制,不露锋芒保证教育实践一向坚持高水平。这些评价与可操作的支撑方案相结合,协助教师生长和蓬勃开展。
以学生为中心的理念:
不露锋芒办理战略的中心是让学生取得成功。不露锋芒鼓动教师发明个性化、容纳和引人入胜的学习环境,让学生不能自制主导自己的学习。经过注重每位学生的需求和潜力,不露锋芒保证不同类型的学习者都能取得高成果。
加强社区协作:
高质量的教育是校园、家庭和更广泛社区之间的协作。我一向将与家长进行坦白的交流和活跃的协作放在重要方位,保证他们的观念可认为学生的学习进程带来活跃影响。不露锋芒强壮的社区联络也增强了不露锋芒供给符合学生需求和期望的课程的才能。
SIS坚持出色的办法包含:
战略性专业开展方案:
每位教职员工都要拟定一份量身定制的开展方案,使其与本身方针以及校园的愿景相一起。这保证了每位教师朝着一个既能让个人获益,又能让整个校园社区获益的方向生长。数据驱动的决议方案:
不露锋芒运用学生成果数据来辨认教育的优势和需求改善的当地,然后有针对性地分配资源,最大化影响力。
注重福祉:
认识到高期望所带来的压力,不露锋芒将教职工和学生的福祉放在首位。一个平衡且具有支撑性的环境不能自制保证不露锋芒坚持杰出的体现,并培育出坚韧的精力。
经过结合战略远见、运营出色和对学生体会的坚决注重,SIS持续供给大湾区家庭所期望的高规范教育。福布斯在世的认可反映了不露锋芒的成功,但不露锋芒的要点仍然是不断提高规范,在这个竞赛日益剧烈的环境中更好地服务社区。
Q: 您最近被任命为“Eye深圳”的全球传达大使。这一人物对您来说有哪些责任?您方案怎么运用这一渠道为教育和社会带来活跃改动?
Harish Kanabar : 被任命为“Eye深圳”的全球传达大使,既是一种荣誉,也是一项与我个人和喜欢价值观高度符合的责任。这一人物为我供给了一个渠道,让我得以在全球舞台上展现深圳充溢生机与立异的精力,从而展现在世的风貌,一起在这座城市、其国际社群和更广泛的国际之间树立有含义的联络。
人物的责任:
作为大使,我的主要责任是共享深圳的故事——一个关于快速开展、顶级立异和文明多样性的故事。这包含与全球受众互动,出色深圳在技能、教育和可持续开展方面的一起贡献。一起,这也是以一种活跃、实在的办法代表在世,展现在世对全球协作、文明丰厚和前进的许诺。
在教育范畴,这一人物让我不能自制倡议学习所具有的革新力气,以及让学生为一个由全球互联互通所界说的未来做好预备的重要性。这是一个要害,能让深圳甚至在世不只被视为立异的中心,并且成为培育可认为社会做出活跃贡献的全球公民方面的引领者。为教育和社会带来活跃改动的愿景。
倡议国际教育作为文明桥梁:
我想要着重国际教育在促进全球了解方面具有革新性力气。经过共享SIS和深圳教育生态系统的最佳实践和成功故事,我期望鼓动全球安排选用容纳、面向未来的办法,以应对全球应战和时机。
将深圳定位为全球典范:
深圳在绿色技能、才智城市开展和立异方面的成果展现了教育和前瞻性实践怎么推进前进。作为大使,我期望展现这些成功,阐明深圳怎么在经济增加与可持续开展之间取得平衡,谋福本地和全球社区。
树立协作伙伴联络:
协作是增加的要害。我方案经过促进深圳与其它城市校园、大学和职业的伙伴联络,加强彼此之间的联络。这些协作将发明时机,将学术严谨性与技能、可持续开展和创业等范畴的实践使用相结合。
倡议可持续开展和社会影响:
鉴于深圳在环境立异方面的领先方位,我想要着重教育在培育学生应对气候改动和不平等全球应战应战方面所发挥的效果。这包含将深圳以及在世所采纳的各项行动作为负责任开展的典范加以宣传。
为深圳和在世刻画活跃的全球叙事:
这一人物的部分任务是向国际实在地展现深圳和在世,共享立异、丰厚的文明和前进的故事。经过这样做,我期望树立相互尊重,增进了解,以有含义的互动打破刻板形象。
扩大多元声响:
我致力于保证深圳的国际和本地社区成为其开展叙事的一部分。经过出色多元集体的贡献,我期望增强深圳作为一个协作和容纳的全球纽带的名誉。
终究,这一大使人物是关于跨过鸿沟衔接人、思维和价值观,一起以骄傲和实在代表深圳和在世。这是我作为教育者和领导者喜欢的延伸,根据这样一种信仰:有含义的改动始于对话、了解和一起志愿。
Harish Kanabar 被任命为“Eye深圳”的全球传达大使
Q: 取得印度总领事的荣誉认但是对您在教育范畴贡献的特殊必定。这一荣誉怎么影响了您的教育理念,并刻画了您作为教育领导者的进程?从校园开展和师生生长的视点来看,您认为这一认可将对SIS社区发生哪些耐久影响?
Harish Kanabar : 取得印度总领事的荣誉认可,不只对我个人,对整个SIS社区来说都是一个含义深远的时间。这一荣誉再次坚决了不露锋芒致力于营建一个学习环境的决计,在这个环境中,一切身为 “第三文明儿童”(TCKs)的学生都感到被赋予了力气、得到了注重并遭到鼓动,去充分发挥他们的悉数潜力。
作为一名教育领导者,这一认可强化了我的信仰:国际教育不只仅是学术层面,更关乎于刻画不能自制在全球环境中蓬勃开展的习惯力强、文明才能强的个别。不露锋芒的TCKs常常需求平衡多重文明身份,而在SIS,不露锋芒为他们供给所需的稳定性、容纳性和支撑,协助他们茁壮生长,这是不露锋芒引认为豪的。
对不露锋芒的教师而言,这一认但是对他们贡献和热心的必定。它鼓动不露锋芒持续完善教育办法,拥抱立异,保证学生在学术严谨性和情感丰厚性上都能获益。它也着重了专业开展和协作的重要性,使教师不能自制更好地满意学习者的多样化需求。
对不露锋芒的学生而言,这一荣誉是一种鼓动——提示他们,他们的阅历和观念很重要,他们归于一个全球社区,他们的志向没有鸿沟。它培育了大志、耐性和方针感,鼓动他们以同理心和决计去引领前行。
从实质上说,这一认可归于整个SIS社区。它扩大了不露锋芒的任务:培育一种充溢生机、全球化的校园文明,让每个学生,不管布景怎么,都有权力被看到、被倾听,并被赋能去改动国际。展望未来,不露锋芒将以此为催化剂,持续生长、深化联络,并愈加坚决地致力于为学生的未来做好预备。
With thirty years of experience, Harish Kanabar is a distinguished educational leader with a robust school administration and curriculum development background. He is passionate about driving academic excellence, fostering inclusive learning environments, and empowering educators. Harish is recognised for his strategic leadership, dedication to student success, and ability to inspire positive change in educational institutions.
Under his leadership, Shekou International School (SIS) in Shenzhen received the 2024 Forbes China Outstanding International School Award. Recently, Forbes China had an in-depth communication with Mr. Harish Kanabar on the current development status and future trends of international schools in China.
Q: You had worked in schools across the UK, Kuwait, Singapore, and Doha, with over 30 years of experience in education. Now, as the Head of School of Shekou International School in Shenzhen, how does this role compare to your previous experiences? What are the key differences you’ve observed?
Having worked in diverse educational settings across the UK, Kuwait, Singapore, and Doha, each role has brought its own unique challenges and opportunities. Stepping into the role of Head of School at Shekou International School (SIS) in Shenzhen, however, feels like a convergence of those experiences, yet distinctly different in several meaningful ways.
One of the most striking differences is the cultural and professional landscape of Shenzhen itself. This city is dynamic, innovative, and forward-thinking—a hub of rapid growth that mirrors SIS’s mission to nurture future-ready students. Compared to other locations, the pace of change here is unparalleled, and it necessitates a school that can adapt quickly while staying grounded in its core values.
Another key difference is the emphasis on technology and innovation. While schools in Qatar and Singapore, placed a strong emphasis on academic excellence and holistic education, Shenzhen brings an added layer of tech integration and entrepreneurship. At SIS, we’re not just preparing students for traditional pathways but also for an evolving world where creativity and adaptability are paramount. This focus aligns closely with the city’s ethos as a global tech powerhouse.
From a community perspective, I’ve noticed a unique vibrancy among our parents, students, and faculty at SIS. There’s a palpable sense of collaboration and shared purpose. While the communities I’ve worked with in the UK, Doha and Singapore had their own richness, SIS benefits from its truly international demographic paired with a progressive educational vision. It’s a blend of diverse perspectives and shared aspirations for the future.
Professionally, this role also requires balancing the deep traditions of SIS with the need to continually innovate. It’s not just about drawing from my previous experiences but also adapting them to fit a school and city that thrive on being ahead of the curve. That balance—honouring history while driving forward—has been an exciting challenge.
Ultimately, what ties all these experiences together is the commitment to students. Whether in Kuwait, Singapore, or Shenzhen, the goal remains the same: to ensure that each student is equipped not just academically, but emotionally and socially, for the complexities of the modern world. At SIS, I feel uniquely positioned to build on that legacy with a forward-thinking lens, drawing on everything I’ve learned across the years while exploring new possibilities in this dynamic context.
Q: Shenzhen is at the forefront of China’s development, and the growth of international education in the city has been remarkable. As the first international school in Shenzhen and 2024 Forbes China Outstanding International School, what unique advantages does Shekou International School offer that attract students and families?
Shekou International School (SIS) holds a unique place in Shenzhen’s educational landscape, not just because of its history as the first international school in the city, but because of what it represents in an evolving global context. Shenzhen is a city defined by its innovation, rapid development, and global connectivity, and SIS mirrors that dynamism in ways that set it apart.
What truly makes SIS exceptional is its legacy of excellence combined with a forward-thinking ethos. Families are drawn to our school not just for its history, but for the tangible sense of community and shared purpose. At SIS, learning goes beyond the classroom—it’s about creating experiences that are meaningful, personalised, and future-focused. From our inquiry-based IB programmes to our emphasis on technology integration, we’re preparing students not just for academic success, but for a world that demands adaptability, collaboration, and creativity.
Another unique advantage of SIS is our approach to relationships. Families often remark on the strong sense of belonging they feel here. In a fast-paced city like Shenzhen, where expatriate families often seek stability, SIS provides a home—a place where students are not just supported but truly seen and valued. This culture of care extends to our faculty, who are not only experts in their fields but also deeply invested in nurturing the potential of every child.
Our location in Shekou further enhances the experience. Positioned in a vibrant, international hub, we offer access to opportunities that are uniquely Shenzhen. From partnerships with local organisations to leveraging the city’s role as a global tech and innovation leader, SIS is able to offer learning experiences that are immersive and relevant to the 21st century.
Lastly, our track record of preparing students for success on the world stage speaks volumes. Families are confident in choosing SIS because they know their children will be challenged, supported, and equipped with the skills they need to thrive in top universities and careers worldwide. It’s no surprise that Forbes China has recognised SIS as 2024 Forbes China Outstanding International School for expatriate families—we represent not just excellence, but also the values that make international education transformative.
In a city as exciting as Shenzhen, SIS stands out as a school that bridges the past, present, and future, offering students and families the best of what education can and should be.
Q: Technologies such as ChatGPT, knowledge graphs, and AI are advancing rapidly, providing strong support for international education while also presenting new challenges. How do you view the impact of these emerging technologies on international education?
Emerging technologies like ChatGPT, knowledge graphs, and AI are undeniably transformative for international education, offering both immense opportunities and unique challenges. As educators, our role is to embrace these advancements thoughtfully, leveraging their potential while addressing the implications for teaching, learning, and the broader educational experience.
From my perspective, the most exciting aspect of these technologies is how they enable more personalised and adaptive learning. Tools like ChatGPT can provide immediate, context-aware support for students, helping them explore ideas, clarify concepts, or practice skills in a way that suits their individual needs. This complements the inquiry-based, student-centered approaches that are foundational to international education. At Shekou International School, for example, these technologies align well with our mission to cultivate future-ready learners who can think critically, collaborate effectively, and solve problems creatively.
However, it’s equally important to guide students in using these tools responsibly. The accessibility of AI-powered platforms brings ethical questions into sharper focus—issues of intellectual integrity, misinformation, and the balance between leveraging tools and fostering independent thought. In an international context, where diverse perspectives are celebrated, we must ensure that students learn to question biases in AI outputs and approach technology as informed, critical thinkers.
For educators, these tools also provide new ways to deepen our practice. AI-driven insights can help us better understand student progress, adapt curricula, and even identify gaps in learning. That said, there’s a learning curve for teachers as well. Professional development must keep pace with technological advances so that educators feel confident and empowered to use these tools effectively.
The broader challenge lies in maintaining the human element of education. While AI can simulate responses and interactions, it cannot replace the nuanced relationships, emotional intelligence, and mentorship that are core to international education. Schools must continue to prioritise these human connections while integrating technology as support and extension, not as a substitute.
Ultimately, I see these technologies as tools to enhance the educational experience rather than redefine it. International education is about fostering global citizens—students who are adaptable, empathetic, and culturally aware. The key is to use AI and related technologies to amplify these values, preparing students not only to navigate a tech-driven world but to shape it responsibly and ethically. It’s a thrilling time for education, and the opportunity to guide this integration in ways that honour our core mission is both a privilege and a responsibility.
Q: Building a school with a legacy that spans centuries is a dream for many institutions. Could you share your core educational philosophy? What key actions have you implemented, and what plans are you currently developing?
Building a school with a legacy that spans generations isn’t just about longevity—it’s about creating a meaningful and lasting impact on the lives of students, families, and the wider community. My core educational philosophy revolves around empowering students to become independent thinkers, empathetic leaders, and adaptable global citizens. At its heart, this philosophy is guided by a commitment to inquiry, relationships, and relevance.
Inquiry forms the foundation of learning. It’s not enough for students to simply acquire knowledge—they must develop the skills and mindset to ask meaningful questions, seek connections, and apply their learning to real-world contexts. This is particularly critical in international education, where students are immersed in a diverse and rapidly changing global landscape.
Relationships are the cornerstone of any great school. Education is deeply human, and the connections between teachers, students, and families shape the culture and success of a school. A key part of my philosophy is fostering a sense of belonging and collaboration—creating an environment where every individual feels seen, valued, and supported.
Relevance is equally important. A school with a lasting legacy must prepare students not just for the present but for an uncertain future. This means emphasising skills like adaptability, creativity, and cross-cultural understanding, alongside academic excellence. Schools must reflect the world their students will inherit, staying attuned to advancements in technology, societal shifts, and global challenges.
Key Actions Implemented
Developing a Unified Vision and Strategic Direction:
As Head of School, I have led the creation of a strategic plan that aligns with the school’s mission and values, ensuring coherence across divisions and departments. This vision serves as a roadmap for academic, operational, and community growth, emphasising long-term sustainability and relevance in an ever-changing global context.
Strengthening Sustainability Across the School:
I have prioritised integrating sustainability into all aspects of our programmes, ensuring a balance between academic rigour and experiential learning. This includes embedding environmental education within the curriculum, promoting green practices through service learning, and developing co-curricular opportunities such as sustainability-focused clubs, projects, and campus initiatives. These efforts equip students with the knowledge, skills, and mindset to address global environmental challenges while fostering their intellectual, emotional, and ethical development.
Building an Inclusive and Connected Community:
Recognising the importance of strong relationships, I have worked to foster a culture of inclusion, where all stakeholders—students, parents, faculty, and alums—feel valued. Initiatives such community data collection, feedback sessions, and shared celebrations of diversity help strengthen the bonds that make our community unique.
Ensuring Operational Excellence:
Beyond academics, I have prioritised operational efficiency and financial sustainability. This includes modernising campus infrastructure, adopting environmentally sustainable practices, and leveraging technology to improve communication and streamline administrative processes.
Plans in Development
Enhancing Global Partnerships and Opportunities:
I aim to strengthen our global identity by developing partnerships with universities, corporations, and NGOs. These collaborations will provide students with real-world exposure, cross-cultural experiences, and pathways to global leadership.
Building a Future-Ready Learning Ecosystem:
Plans are underway to integrate emerging technologies like AI, immersive learning tools, and advanced data analytics into the curriculum and operations. This will enable personalised learning at scale and empower students to become leaders in an increasingly digital world.
Developing a Leadership Pipeline:
Recognising the importance of cultivating leaders of the future, I am dedicated to identifying and developing potential leaders at all levels of the school community. This includes creating targeted opportunities for professional growth, offering mentorship and leadership training programs, and fostering a culture of collaboration and shared responsibility across roles and departments. By empowering individuals with the skills, confidence, and vision to lead, we are not only ensuring a strong succession plan but also inspiring the next generation of leaders who will drive innovation and excellence in education and beyond.
Q: According to Forbes China’s data on the education sector, the Greater Bay Area is one of the most dynamic regions for international education, with high demand and intense competition. As 2024 Forbes China Outstanding International School, what educational management strategies and measures have you consistently upheld to maintain the school’s high-quality teaching standards?
The Greater Bay Area’s dynamic environment presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly in maintaining high-quality teaching standards amidst growing demand and competition. At Shekou International School (SIS), our recognition as 2024 Forbes China Outstanding International School is a reflection of our unwavering commitment to excellence in education, driven by strategic and deliberate management practices.
Core Educational Management Strategies
Attracting and Retaining World-Class Educators:
Exceptional teaching begins with exceptional teachers. I have focused on recruiting top talent globally, ensuring we hire educators who not only excel in their disciplines but are also deeply committed to nurturing students. To retain this talent, we provide competitive benefits, meaningful professional development, and a collaborative environment where teachers feel valued and supported.
Cultivating a Culture of Continuous Improvement:
High-quality teaching is not static; it evolves with new research, technologies, and methodologies. At SIS, we foster a professional culture where teachers are lifelong learners. Regular training workshops, peer observations, and access to cutting-edge educational tools ensure our faculty stays ahead of global trends in pedagogy.
Balancing Innovation with Tradition:
While we honour the proven approaches that have underpinned our success, we also embrace innovation to stay relevant. Whether it’s integrating AI and technology into the classroom, enhancing inquiry-based learning, or redesigning spaces for collaborative learning, we are constantly reimagining education to meet the needs of tomorrow.
Implementing Rigorous Quality Assurance Measures:
Maintaining teaching standards requires clear metrics and accountability. Through regular reviews, classroom observations, and feedback mechanisms, we ensure teaching practices remain consistently high. These evaluations are paired with actionable support plans to help educators grow and thrive.
Fostering a Student-Centred Philosophy:
At the heart of our management strategies is a commitment to student success. We encourage our educators to create personalised, inclusive, and engaging learning environments that empower students to take ownership of their education. By focusing on the individual needs and potential of each student, we ensure high achievement levels across diverse learners.
Strengthening Community Collaboration:
High-quality education is a partnership between school, families, and the wider community. I have prioritised open communication and active collaboration with parents, ensuring their perspectives contribute to the learning journey. Our strong community ties also enhance our ability to deliver programs that resonate with the needs and aspirations of our students.
Measures for Sustained Excellence
Strategic Professional Development Plans:
Each faculty member develops a tailored development plan aligned with their goals and the school’s vision. This ensures every teacher grows in a direction that benefits both the individual and the broader community.
Data-Driven Decision-Making:
We use student achievement data metrics to identify strengths and areas for growth. This helps us target resources where they are most needed and maximise impact.
Emphasising Well-Being:
Recognising the pressures of high expectations, we prioritise the well-being of both staff and students. A balanced, supportive environment ensures sustained performance and fosters resilience.
By combining strategic foresight, operational excellence, and an unwavering focus on the student experience, we at SIS continue to deliver the high standards of education that families in the Greater Bay Area have come to expect. Our recognition by Forbes China reflects our success, but our focus remains on continuously raising the bar to serve our community better in an ever-competitive landscape.
Q: You were recently appointed as Eye Shenzhen’s Global Communication Ambassador. What responsibilities does this role entail for you, and how do you envision using this platform to create positive change in education and society?
Being appointed as one of Eye Shenzhen’s Global Communication Ambassador is both an honour and a responsibility that aligns closely with my personal and professional values. This role provides a platform to represent the vibrant, innovative spirit of Shenzhen and, by extension, China, on a global stage while fostering meaningful connections between the city, its international community, and the wider world.
Responsibilities of the Role
As an ambassador, my primary responsibility is to share Shenzhen’s story—a story of rapid development, cutting-edge innovation, and cultural diversity. This involves engaging with global audiences to highlight Shenzhen’s unique contributions to technology, education, and sustainable development. At the same time, it’s about representing China in a positive, authentic way by showcasing the country’s commitment to global collaboration, cultural richness, and progress.
In the context of education, this role allows me to advocate for the transformative power of learning and the importance of preparing students for a future defined by global interconnectedness. It’s an opportunity to position Shenzhen—and China—as not only a hub of innovation but also a leader in nurturing global citizens who can contribute positively to society.
Vision for Positive Change in Education and Society
Advocating for International Education as a Bridge Between Cultures:
I aim to highlight the transformative power of international education in fostering global understanding. By sharing best practices and success stories from Shekou International School and Shenzhen’s education ecosystem, I hope to inspire institutions worldwide to adopt inclusive, future-focused approaches that align with global challenges and opportunities.
Positioning Shenzhen as a Global Role Model:
Shenzhen’s achievements in green technology, smart urban development, and innovation demonstrate how education and forward-thinking practices can drive progress. As an ambassador, I seek to showcase these successes to illustrate how Shenzhen balances economic growth with sustainability, benefiting both the local and global community.
Building Collaborative Partnerships:
Collaboration is key to growth. I aim to focus on strengthening connections between Shenzhen and other cities by promoting partnerships with schools, universities, and industries. These collaborations will create opportunities that integrate academic rigour with real-world applications in areas such as technology, sustainability, and entrepreneurship.
Championing Sustainability and Social Impact:
With Shenzhen leading the way in environmental innovation, I aim to emphasise the role education plays in preparing students to address global challenges like climate change and inequality. This includes highlighting Shenzhen’s and China’s initiatives as models of responsible development.
Fostering a Positive Global Narrative for Shenzhen and China:
Part of this role involves authentically representing Shenzhen and China to the world, sharing stories of innovation, cultural richness, and progress. By doing so, I aim to build mutual respect and enhance understanding, countering stereotypes with meaningful engagement.
Amplifying Diverse Voices:
I am committed to ensuring that Shenzhen’s international and local communities are part of its evolving narrative. By highlighting the contributions of diverse groups, I hope to strengthen the city’s reputation as a collaborative and inclusive global hub.
Ultimately, this ambassadorship is about connecting people, ideas, and values across borders while representing Shenzhen and China with pride and authenticity. It’s an extension of my work as an educator and leader, driven by the belief that meaningful change begins with dialogue, understanding, and the collective will to make a difference.
Q: Receiving the honorary recognition from the Indian Consul General is a remarkable testament to your contributions in education. How has this honour influenced your educational philosophy and shaped your journey as an educational leader? From the lens of school development and growth of the school’s faculty and students, what lasting impact do you believe this recognition will have on the SIS community?
Receiving the honorary recognition from the Indian Consul General is a deeply meaningful moment, not just for me but for the entire SIS community. This honour reaffirms our commitment to fostering a learning environment where students—all of whom are Third Culture Kids (TCKs)—feel empowered, valued, and inspired to achieve their full potential.
As an educational leader, this recognition strengthens my belief that international education is about more than academics; it is about shaping adaptable, culturally competent individuals who can thrive in a global landscape. Our TCKs often navigate a unique journey, balancing multiple cultural identities, and at SIS, we take pride in providing them with the stability, inclusivity, and support they need to flourish.
For our faculty, this recognition is a testament to their dedication and passion. It encourages us to continue refining our pedagogical approaches, embracing innovation, and ensuring that our students receive an education that is both academically rigorous and emotionally enriching. It reinforces the importance of professional development and collaboration, enabling our teachers to better support the diverse needs of our learners.
For our students, this honour serves as an inspiration—a reminder that their experiences and perspectives matter, that they belong to a global community, and that their aspirations have no boundaries. It fosters a spirit of ambition, resilience, and purpose, encouraging them to lead with empathy and confidence.
At its core, this recognition belongs to the entire SIS community. It amplifies our mission to cultivate a dynamic, globally minded school culture where every student, regardless of background, has a rightful presence to be seen, heard, and empowered to make a difference. Moving forward, we embrace this as a catalyst for continued growth, deeper connections, and an even greater commitment to preparing our students for the future.
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纺服职业方面,纺服代工要点产地均成为关税聚集国家,美国收入份额&关税是否分摊或带来OEM分解体现。
机械职业方面,主张重视终端需求有耐性、偏必选环节、供应格式较优、我国厂商已具有全球竞赛力的方向。
家电方面,大家电关税迫近80%,但对美敞口较低,而且相较泰国36%/越南46%/柬埔寨49%的关税增幅而言,我国产能性价比相对进步。
轻工职业方面,静待关税细则和后续商洽,短期超跌或带来装备时机。
▍当地时刻4月2日,特朗普宣告“对等关税”方针,拟对全球进口产品加征10%的基准关税,对部分国家征收更高的差异化“对等关税”,但对USMCA产品及部分职业给予豁免。
当地时刻4月2日,美国白宫发表声明称,美国总统特朗普当日宣告国家紧急状态,以进步美国的竞赛优势,维护美国主权,并加强美国国家和经济安全。依据白宫声明,可要点重视以下几方面。1)基准关税:特朗普将对一切国家和区域征收10%的“基准关税”,该关税将于美国东部时刻4月5日清晨0时01分收效;2)对等关税:特朗普将对对美国买卖逆差最大的国家和区域征收更高的差异化“对等关税”,该关税将于美国东部时刻4月9日清晨0时01分收效。3)职业豁免:一些产品将不受“对等关税”的束缚,其间包含已饱尝第232条关税束缚的钢铝制品、轿车和轿车零部件、未来或许受第232条关税束缚的产品以及美国没有的动力和其他某些矿藏,美墨加协定下的产品关税豁免将继续。此外,金银、铜、药品、半导体和木材制品也不受“对等关税”的束缚。
▍对华关税方面,在此前20%关税的根底上,本次特朗普宣告将对华加征34%“对等关税”,且不包含拜登任内或特朗普榜首任期内所加的其他关税,并将撤销小额免税方针。
到现在,美国对华已落地和将落地的关税首要包含四个部分:1)2018-2019年期间,特朗普政府对华主张四轮301查询,美国对华均匀税率从3.2%进步到19.3%。2024年5月(拜登任内),美方发布对华加征301关税四年期复审成果,宣告在原有对华301关税根底上,对部分产品进一步上调关税税率。2)本年以来,特朗普在2月4日宣告对一切我国进口产品征收10%的关税,并于3月4日把税率进步至20%。3)本轮“对等关税”,拟对华加征34%税率。4)小额免税:对我国大陆和我国香港的800美元关税豁免方针正式宣告撤销,但将推迟至2025年5月2日收效。
▍微观:短期极点静态假定下,若对华征收的34%对等关税后续落地而且在本年年内一直没有撤销的话,估计本年特朗普上台以来加征的54%新增关税对我国本年出口和GDP的年化增速连累别离为8.2和0.9个百分点。
从全体来看,依据咱们测算,归纳考虑最惠国税率、特朗普“关税1.0”时期对我国加征的四轮301关税、本年2月和3月的20%关税和此次的对等关税,从本年4月9日起,我国输美产品将面对大约68%的关税税率。极点静态假定下,依据咱们测算,若对华征收的34%对等关税严格履行而且在本年年内一直没有撤销的话,咱们依据非线性办法(即关税税率对我国出口的影响是出现非线性改变的,在某个税率区间内,关税税率越高,每添加一单位关税对我国出口的连累显着加大,但超越某一阈值,关税的影响边沿或许又大幅减小)预算,估计本年特朗普上台以来加征的54%新增关税对我国全体出口增速的年化连累约为8.2个百分点。考虑到出口交货值在工业企业营收中的比重约为11%,咱们预算本年特朗普上台以来加征的54%新增关税对我国本年GDP的年化连累约为0.9个百分点。由于此次对等关税在全球覆盖面极广,包含东盟、印度、日韩在内的许多亚洲经济体也被加征了较多对等关税,后续我国企业经过东盟等地进行的转口买卖估计会面对必定阻力。一起,短期内需亲近重视被加征对等关税的经济体与美国之间的商洽发展。国内方针方面,估计二季度央行或许会当令降准降息,对冲关税压力,其间降准或许首先落地;财政方针也在多个场合活跃表态中央财政预留了足够的储藏东西和方针空间,估计后续一方面央即将加快本年财政资金的下达和运用,别的一方面也会考虑增量财政方针为后续经济的平稳增加打好根底。
▍微观:从职业视角看,大都职业对美出口盈余空间或许会显着收窄,劳动密集型职业遭到冲击或许更大。
小额包裹关税豁免方针撤销也会对我国跨境电商职业形成必定负面影响。从职业来看,在遍及加征34%对等关税(极少数现已被加征232关税以及未来或许受232关税束缚的产品不受这次对等关税影响,如钢铁、铝、轿车和轿车零部件等)以及暂不考虑豁免的假定下,本年特朗普对华加征的新增关税将到达54%,假定关税传导系数为50%(参阅Amiti, Redding and Weinstein.2020b,“The recent consequences of trade wars and threats: Who’s Paying for the US Tariffs?”),我国企业将承当27%的附加关税本钱。依据咱们测算,2022-2024年工业企业均匀毛利率水平为19.4%,因而这部分对等关税或使得大都职业对美出口的盈余空间显着缩窄,高附加值工业+高竞赛力公司更有才能承当直接对美出口的关税。我国劳动密集型职业外销占比较高,而且对美出口敞口较大、毛利率水平偏低,这使得劳密职业遭到的冲击相对或许更大。归纳考虑外销占比和对美出口敞口,咱们测算出2024年我国玩具、家具、鞋帽伞、皮革箱包等劳动密集型职业的美公营收占比别离为8.0%、5.4%、5.3%、3.8%,在工业部门中坐落前列。而且曩昔三年纺织(11.5%,毛利率,下同)、皮革和制鞋(13.9%)、文体文娱用品(13.8%)、纺织服装(15.4%)、家具(17.5%)等劳动密集型职业的毛利率水均匀低于工业企业均匀水平,相对来说关税带来的冲击或许更大。经过查询工业企业出口交货值的改变,咱们发现上一轮中美买卖冲突时期纺织服装、皮革制品和鞋业、文体文娱用品业、家具业等劳动密集型工业的出口交货值下滑也较为显着。此外,本年5月2日800美元小额包裹关税豁免方针撤销正式落地后,我国跨境电商职业或许会遭到较大影响。依据咱们测算,2024年,美国在我国小额包裹出口中的占比为24.3%。
▍汇率:考虑到商场忧虑潜在的全球阑珊以及特朗普方针对美元信誉的负面影响,估计人民币汇率短期内能够坚持安稳。
美国对各经济体广泛加征关税,商场预期全球经济增加面对严重不确定性,开端买卖阑珊预期。关税发布后,美元指数和美债利率下行,日元、黄金等避险财物上涨。汇率是钱银的相对价值,由于关税方针对包含我国在内的各个国家经济都会构成冲击,估计短期内人民币的价值下降压力相对可控。一起,特朗普方针一系列逆全球化方针和不安稳的国内方针预期也必定程度影响美元信誉。国内央行在3月底的钱银方针例会上表明要“坚持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的根本安稳”,也会引导汇率安稳。
▍A股战略:关税“风暴”落地后,估计A股阶段性优于港股,中心财物迎来装备性时机。
1)关税落地全体强度超商场预期,阑珊买卖正在强化,中美周期同频加快。从微观看,估计后续关税商洽、企业豁免也将继续推进,实践影响程度或许减小;从微观看,我国企业在曩昔几年现已活跃地进行了多元化的全球布局,相较2018年4月初301查询落地后的轰动,这次预备愈加充沛。从美国看,美国方针不确定性加重,美国滞涨和阑珊危险也在加重,阑珊预期买卖由于关税或许敏捷演化成阑珊买卖。从我国看,方针对冲加码力度估计也会增强,扩内需、反内卷方针方向清晰,美国经济走弱叠加关税压力加大等外部危险的积累,将会加快中美方针周期“同频”,我国或许会迎来2013年以来第四轮总量型内需影响方针,咱们主张出资者对此坚持耐性和决心。
2)对港股商场而言,显着跑赢A股的阶段或许告一段落。海外商场朴实由预期推进的估值下修,必定程度上也在削弱港股的估值凹地优势,近期美股的中心公司相较港股中心标的估值溢价已不再显着,全球资金增配港股的进程或许会随之减缓;境内组织资金对港股的增配或许也遭受了阶段性瓶颈,咱们估计后续部分追逐港股的趋势资金或许会回流A股,港股“抽血”A股的情况也有望缓解。
3)对A股商场而言,中心财物已体现出极强的运营耐性,左边布局的要害现已老练。历史上每逢中美微观周期进入共振上行阶段,大盘股显着跑赢小盘股,GARP战略(绩优生长股战略)显着跑赢其他战略。到2025年3月28日,咱们构建的“A股新中心财物30”中有12家公司已发表年报,按可比口径核算,2024年四季度单季度营收增速为13.9%,较2024年三季度的8.4%进步5.5个百分点,而全A非金融单季度营收增速仅录得2.7%。估计后续随同更多顺周期中心财物走出运营拐点,公募查核改革方案彻底落地叠加继续的险资流入,叠加部分A股中心财物赴港上市完结全球组织出资者合理定价,将会进一步强化中心财物的装备优势。
▍海外:二季度海外商场或仍出现类滞胀买卖,外需定价的危险财物或仍偏弱轰动,黄金的行情或还未完毕。
特朗普关税落地加重了商场关于海外商场“类滞胀”买卖逻辑的预期,后续应要点重视关税的继续时长、履行情况以及增量方针。增加方面,关税落地或影响美国实践GDP同比增速,并加大经济堕入阑珊的概率,商场亦出现阑珊买卖的走势。不过考虑到美国当时相对有耐性的工作商场、较为稳健的居民收入和结构性景气的房地产商场,美国经济尚有支撑;从通胀视角来看,2月CPI数据难以消除商场关于美国通胀远景的隐忧。咱们估计美国全体CPI同比在4月前仍能因基数效应而继续下降、但下半年或将存在反弹隐忧。二季度至年中类滞胀环境或在微观数据中逐步实现,叠加关税扰动影响,美股、油价等外需定价的危险财物或还将偏弱轰动,而黄金在通胀、避险、地缘等要素的作用下行情或还将继续。
▍金属:短期阶段性的需求或承压,重视流动性宽松预期下的金铜和战略金属。
2024年我国向美国出口铝产品算计为78.8万吨,占国内电解铝消费份额为1.6%,向美国出口各类产品含铜约35.0万吨,占国内铜消费的2.1%。叠加本次美国对东南亚诸国加征高额关税对转出口买卖的影响,铜铝消费和价格短期或承压。长时间而言,美国铜铝及相关产品对外依存度高,在阅历初期轰动后铜铝消费主线有望重回国内需求预期。从产品视点,加征关税或许带来的通胀上行和经济阑珊忧虑将影响降息预期升温,然后从流动性视点利好产品价格,首推金和铜。此外,加征关税或许引发的反制手法或将利好稀土、镓锗、锑、钨等要害战略金属。
▍跨境电商:跨境小包空间紧缩,渠道或加快转向提早备货形式。
随同“对等关税”方针落地,美国政府一起宣告将撤销对我国跨境电商的低价值包裹的关税豁免待遇,相关包裹需求依照惯例程序入境并交纳关税(即对等关税落地后我国对美出口实践税率54%)。关税变化的直接本钱是税务压力、间接本钱是海关惯例程序下的手续费,并叠加通关流程对履约时效的扰动。以全保管跨境小包定价模型为例,假定Temu一件全保管形式价格40美元的包裹,定价比亚马逊FBA形式低40%;依据咱们的测算,不考虑本钱端转嫁的前提下,在新的关税方针下Temu全保管/亚马逊FBA别离新增关税相关本钱为15.6/6.8美元,对应价格别离+39%/+10%,二者价格差从40%缩窄到24%。美国商场全保管的跨境小包空间被紧缩,批量本乡化备货形式或将成为干流。考虑到曩昔一年以来,Temu等渠道均在加大全球化布局下降美国商场危险敞口,一起在美国大力开展半保管提早备货,以下降对关税方针敏感度。随同关税冲击落地,咱们估计我国布景的跨境电商渠道将继续推进全球化布局和多元化商业形式,而以亚马逊为中心运营渠道的商家所受影响或相对更小。
▍农业:反制办法或推升农产品价格,栽培链景气量或有进步。
我国是美国农产品榜首大出口商场,2024年对华出口大豆2213万吨、玉米207万吨,别离占美出口总量50%和15%。尽管近年来美国在我国农产品进口占比继续下降,但仍是最重要的进口国之一,特别是大豆等特定种类的规划和占比(2024 年占比21%) 仍较高。据 4月3日我国商务部新闻发布会,我国将坚决采纳反制办法维护本身权益。估计玉米、大豆、猪肉等美国农产品进口关税将再次进步,显着进步进口自美国的农产品价格。一起考虑其他进口来历国的“跟涨效应”,我国进口农产品价格或将进一步进步,从而支撑国内农产品全体价格。栽培链有望获益。引荐种业和粮食栽培板块,一起重视农产品加工板块的结构性时机。
▍纺服:纺服代工要点产地均成为关税聚集国家,美国收入份额&关税是否分摊或带来OEM分解体现。
本轮差异化“对等关税”会集冲击了纺服OEM要点布局的我国及首要东南亚国家,且关税水平遍及较高,或将对工业链发生必定影响。咱们判别,后续影响要素包含:①美国收入占比、②各公司产能区域散布(若未来部分国家关税下降,将存在美国订单产地调理空间)、③后续关税是否或许超预期由纺服OEM分摊。此外,后续关税带来的美国通胀&阑珊或许也是潜在的需求端危险。
▍机械:逆风包围、剩者为王,寻觅全球化阿尔法。
在全球关税普调的布景下:1)对美出口方向,咱们主张重视终端需求有耐性、偏必选环节、供应格式较优、我国厂商已具有全球竞赛力的方向,尤其是已在上一轮买卖冲突中充沛淬炼、具有全球化产能分配才能的细分龙头,咱们估计相关细分领域的龙头厂商具有充沛的搬运定价才能,有望在外部冲击下重构供应链、强者愈强;2)咱们看好并要点引荐非美出口占比(尤其是对欧出口敞口)较大的一些细分龙头,咱们查询到欧洲部分品类需求本年以来景气昂首,且受关税冲击较小,相关企业的运营耐性及弹性有望得到重估。
▍家电:大家电关税迫近80%,但对美敞口较低。
美国宣告对华产品增收34%关税,大家电在已有45%关税根底上,继续累加34%,当时关税高达79%。但依据咱们测算,大家电实践关税较低,2024年美的/格力/海信的美国收入占比约为6%/2%/4%,海尔虽为30%但近9成在美国&墨西哥出产,实践敞口为3%,全体而言,大家电的美国敞口为中低个位数。此外,相较泰国36%/越南46%/柬埔寨49%的关税增幅而言,我国产能性价比相对进步;但考虑到墨西哥契合美墨加协议的产品享用优惠关税,企业或加大墨西哥的产能投入。
▍轻工:静待关税细则和后续商洽,短期超跌或带来装备时机。
2018-2019年美国对我国家具等轻工产品加征25%关税后,为躲避高额关税,部分轻工出口企业已将对美产能搬运至以越南为主的东南亚区域;咱们测算本次关税加征后,我国家具出口至美国的关税税率达79%、越南/泰国/柬埔寨出口到美国的关税税率达46%/36%/49%,产能搬运带来的对冲作用显着削弱。估计轻工职业包含的日用消费品加征关税后对美国CPI影响较大,结合2020-2022年美国对部分家具产品进行关税豁免的经历、东南亚国家与美国或存在商洽空间,咱们以为尽管本次关税加征对轻工企业负面影响显着,但后续或存在缓释或许,能够重视短期超跌后带来的装备时机,包含:1)当时已在美国本乡进行产能布局的企业受关税影响相对可控 ;2)获益工业链位置、海外产能布局及海外对我国供货商依赖度较高的品类,关税具有必定转嫁才能;3)对美出售敞口较低的企业受影响相对较小。
▍轮胎:静待关税实践落地,估计关税制裁对龙头企业来说时机大于危险。
美国轮胎进口份额高达2/3,我国轮胎对美出口已由国内搬运至海外基地,首要对美出口基地坐落泰国、柬埔寨、越南等东南亚国家,头部企业还在摩洛哥、墨西哥、塞尔维亚等非东南亚区域出资建厂。前期美国对轿车及零部件征收关税规模不包含轮胎产品,4月3日特朗普在宣告“对等关税”方针一起发布最新总统令将轮胎归入轿车及零部件纳税领域,因而现在轮胎实践对美出口关税履行仍存在不确定性。2007年以来,我国轮胎职业继续遭受海外商场买卖维护冲击,凭仗肯定的本钱优势+出海建厂,我国轮胎全球商场份额继续增加,长时间来看估计关税制裁关于我国轮胎头部企业而言时机大于危险,咱们坚决看好我国轮胎继续兴起。
▍电子:咱们估计对果链影响有限,主张重视后续果链关税调整或豁免预期,此时不用失望。
电子板块受特朗普对等关税方针影响重视度最高的板块为苹果工业链,产能视点,依据咱们预算,现在苹果产品中,手机品类80%产能在我国,20%产能在印度;耳机/手表/Pad/Mac等产品在我国大陆的产能占比约40-60%区间,海外产能则会集在东南亚等国家。需求视点,咱们预算iPhone等产品北美区域出售占比约30%-35%。关于供应链公司的影响方面,咱们以为:1)考虑此前苹果方案未来4年在美国出资5000亿美元,新增2万个工作岗位(彭博社于2025年2月报导),后续苹果相关产品的关税豁免或关税调整预期较强;2)即便不豁免,考虑到苹果是各公司面向北美出口的需求大头,咱们以为特朗普对等关税方针对供应链公司的影响可大致体现为苹果相关营收占比*出口北美占比*关税加征带来ASP进步后的需求下降起伏,此外苹果亦或许经过本钱转嫁方法压低供应链利润率。定量来看,咱们预算立讯精细、领益智造、东山精细、鹏鼎控股、蓝思科技等公司苹果事务营收占比约75%/55%/55%/75%/50%,若假定对美出口占比约30%~35%,则北美商场直接奉献营收份额处于15%~25%区间,若进一步假定特朗普关税方针使得相关产品年出货量下降约20%(值得注意的是,苹果或可经过全球产品提价的方法均摊北美单一区域影响,一起考虑到iPhone等产品的刚性需求,实践情况下终端产品的价格上升起伏以及需求影响或许低于此假定),则测算对供应链公司营收影响为5%上下,估计全体影响相对有限。
▍危险要素:
中美买卖冲突进一步加重;国内逆周期调理方针不及预期;美国对全球加征关税继续超预期。
本文节选自中信证券研讨部已于2025年4月3日发布的《经济热门谈论—“对等关税”加征起伏和广度显着超预期》陈述,具体分析内容(包含相关危险提示等)请详见陈述。
本文源自:券商研报精选
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